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Melbourne Victory vs Sydney FC — A-League 2018

Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sydney FC
Sydney FC
1/26/2019A-LeagueA-League · Round 16AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Melbourne Victory39%
×Draw25%
Sydney FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Victory
1.46
Sydney FC
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 112 away

creates per match

Melbourne Victory
1.61
Sydney FC
1.46

allows per match

Melbourne Victory
1.35
Sydney FC
1.30

finishing

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par
Sydney FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Victory ↓

Sydney FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Melbourne Victory or draw
64%
Melbourne Victory or Sydney FC
75%
Draw or Sydney FC
61%

Winning margin

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+
18%
Sydney FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals
77%
Melbourne Victory 2+ goals
43%
Melbourne Victory 3+ goals
18%
Sydney FC 1+ goals
76%
Sydney FC 2+ goals
41%
Sydney FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)
51%
Sydney FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Victory at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

Sydney FC away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.30 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Victory attack 1.61 + Sydney FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sydney FC attack 1.46 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Melbourne Victory scores more
39%
level
25%
Sydney FC scores more
36%

Melbourne Victory at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Melbourne Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Melbourne Victory 2–1 Sydney FC

Melbourne Victory beat Sydney FC 2-1 in A-League on January 26, 2019.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.