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Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners FC — A-League 2018

Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Central Coast Mariners FC
Central Coast Mariners FC
G. Niedermeier 79'
O. Toivonen 21'
M. Simon 53' (pen)
4/14/2019A-LeagueA-League · Round 25AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Melbourne Victory43%
×Draw24%
Central Coast Mariners FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Victory
1.63
Central Coast Mariners FC
1.39

Melbourne Victory creates 17% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 109 away

creates per match

Melbourne Victory
1.61
Central Coast Mariners FC
1.42

allows per match

Melbourne Victory
1.35
Central Coast Mariners FC
1.65

finishing

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par
Central Coast Mariners FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Victory ↓

Central Coast Mariners FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Melbourne Victory or draw
67%
Melbourne Victory or Central Coast Mariners FC
76%
Draw or Central Coast Mariners FC
57%

Winning margin

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+
22%
Central Coast Mariners FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals
80%
Melbourne Victory 2+ goals
48%
Melbourne Victory 3+ goals
22%
Central Coast Mariners FC 1+ goals
75%
Central Coast Mariners FC 2+ goals
40%
Central Coast Mariners FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)
57%
Central Coast Mariners FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Victory at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

Central Coast Mariners FC away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Victory attack 1.61 + Central Coast Mariners FC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Central Coast Mariners FC attack 1.42 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Melbourne Victory scores more
43%
level
24%
Central Coast Mariners FC scores more
33%

Melbourne Victory at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Melbourne Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
K. HondaMelbourne VictoryMelbourne Victory · M
8.0

Match Events

3'
Elvis Kamsoba
21'
O. Toivonen↳ E. Kamsoba
22'
M. Shabow← M. McGlinchey
32'
Ola Toivonen
53'
M. SimonPenalty
58'
S. Roux← T. Deng
63'
A. Lesiotis← E. Kamsoba
69'
J. Murray← C. Pain
78'
S. Mallon← A. Hoole
79'
G. Niedermeier↳ K. Barbarouses

Possession

64%Melbourne

Shots

13Melbourne

Pass accuracy

53%Melbourne

Statistics

MelbourneCentral
Overview
64%Possession36%
13Total Shots6
6Corners4
12Fouls18
Shots
13Total Shots6
4On Target2
6Off Target1
3Blocked3
9Inside Box3
4Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
618Total Passes336
525Accurate Passes249
85%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls18
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners FC

Melbourne Victory beat Central Coast Mariners FC 2-1 in A-League on April 14, 2019.

Goals: O. Toivonen (21'), M. Simon (53' pen), G. Niedermeier (79').

Melbourne Victory controlled possession (64%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.