Melbourne Victory 0–1 Central Coast Mariners

Melbourne Victory

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Central Coast Mariners

R. Teague 48' (OG)

2/25/2024

A-League · Round 18AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Melbourne Victory43%

×Draw24%

Central Coast Mariners33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melbourne VictoryExpected goals in this matchCentral Coast Mariners

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.39

Melbourne Victory

1.63

Central Coast Mariners

1.39

Melbourne Victory creates 17% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 109 away

1.61

creates per match

1.42

1.35

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Melbourne Victory

1.61

Central Coast Mariners

1.42

allows per match

Melbourne Victory

1.35

Central Coast Mariners

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Victory ↓

Central Coast Mariners →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Melbourne Victory or draw

67%

Melbourne Victory or Central Coast Mariners

76%

Draw or Central Coast Mariners

57%

Winning margin

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+

22%

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals

80%

Melbourne Victory 2+ goals

48%

Melbourne Victory 3+ goals

22%

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals

75%

Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals

40%

Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)

57%

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Victory at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Victory attack 1.61 + Central Coast Mariners defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.42 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Melbourne Victory scores more

43%

level

24%

Central Coast Mariners scores more

33%

Melbourne Victory at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Melbourne Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Mikael Doka

Central Coast Mariners · D

8.7

Match Events

21'

Jason Geria

46'

J. Brimmer← F. Monge

46'

A. Kuol← R. Edmondson

47'

Daniel Arzani

48'

R. TeagueOwn goal

56'

Alou Kuol

59'

Roderick Miranda

65'

Ángel Torres

67'

B. Folami← S. Khelifi

76'

J. Valadon← R. Teague

76'

C. Ikonomidis← D. Arzani

79'

M. Di Pizio← B. Tapp

80'

Roderick Miranda

80'

Roderick Miranda

89'

Jordi ValadonCard upgrade

90'

Jordi Valadon

90+10'

Storm Roux

90+7'

Ronald

90+6'

RonaldCard upgrade

90+1'

K. Bos← Z. Machach

90+5'

Ronald Barcellos← Á. Torres

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MelbourneCentral

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots17

7Corners1

20Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots17

1On Target3

6Off Target9

8Blocked5

6Inside Box9

9Outside Box8

Passing

57%Possession43%

492Total Passes390

432Accurate Passes336

88%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

2Red Cards1

0Offsides2