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Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners — Australia Cup 2021

Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victoryadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Mariners
2/5/2022Australia CupAustralia Cup · FinalAAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Melbourne Victory30%
×Draw26%
Central Coast Mariners44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Victory
1.18
Central Coast Mariners
1.48

Central Coast Mariners creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Melbourne Victory
1.75
Central Coast Mariners
2.20

allows per match

Melbourne Victory
0.75
Central Coast Mariners
0.60

finishing

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par
Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Victory ↓

Central Coast Mariners →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Melbourne Victory or draw
56%
Melbourne Victory or Central Coast Mariners
74%
Draw or Central Coast Mariners
70%

Winning margin

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+
12%
Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals
69%
Melbourne Victory 2+ goals
33%
Melbourne Victory 3+ goals
12%
Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals
77%
Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals
43%
Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)
41%
Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Victory at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 2.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Victory attack 1.75 + Central Coast Mariners defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.18

Central Coast Mariners attack 2.20 + Melbourne Victory defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Melbourne Victory scores more
30%
level
26%
Central Coast Mariners scores more
44%

Central Coast Mariners at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners

Melbourne Victory beat Central Coast Mariners 2-1 in Australia Cup on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.