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Melbourne Knights vs Green Gully — Victoria NPL 2026

Melbourne Knights
Melbourne Knights
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Green Gully
Green Gully
8/5/2022Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 21Knights Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Melbourne Knights41%
×Draw24%
Green Gully35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Knights
1.57
Green Gully
1.42

Melbourne Knights creates 11% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 87 away

creates per match

Melbourne Knights
1.62
Green Gully
1.32

allows per match

Melbourne Knights
1.51
Green Gully
1.52

finishing

Melbourne Knights+0.00on par
Green Gully+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Knights ↓

Green Gully →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Melbourne Knights or draw
65%
Melbourne Knights or Green Gully
76%
Draw or Green Gully
59%

Winning margin

Melbourne Knights wins by 2+
20%
Green Gully wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Melbourne Knights 1+ goals
79%
Melbourne Knights 2+ goals
46%
Melbourne Knights 3+ goals
21%
Green Gully 1+ goals
76%
Green Gully 2+ goals
41%
Green Gully 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)
54%
Green Gully (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Knights at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.51 · 77 matches

Green Gully away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Knights attack 1.62 + Green Gully defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.57

Green Gully attack 1.32 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Melbourne Knights scores more
41%
level
24%
Green Gully scores more
35%

Melbourne Knights at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Melbourne Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Melbourne Knights 2–0 Green Gully

Melbourne Knights beat Green Gully 2-0 in Victoria NPL on August 5, 2022.

The match was played at Knights Stadium in Melbourne.