Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Melbourne City vs Western United — A-League 2018

Melbourne City
Melbourne City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Western United
Western United
12/4/2021A-LeagueA-League · Round 3AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Melbourne City52%
×Draw22%
Western United25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City
1.91
Western United
1.27

Melbourne City creates 50% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 84 away

creates per match

Melbourne City
2.07
Western United
1.49

allows per match

Melbourne City
1.04
Western United
1.75

finishing

Melbourne City+0.00on par
Western United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City ↓

Western United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Melbourne City or draw
75%
Melbourne City or Western United
78%
Draw or Western United
48%

Winning margin

Melbourne City wins by 2+
30%
Western United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Melbourne City 1+ goals
85%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
57%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
30%
Western United 1+ goals
72%
Western United 2+ goals
36%
Western United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City (draw refunded)
67%
Western United (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Western United away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City attack 2.07 + Western United defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.91

Western United attack 1.49 + Melbourne City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Melbourne City scores more
52%
level
22%
Western United scores more
25%

Melbourne City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Melbourne City 0–1 Western United

Western United beat Melbourne City 1-0 in A-League on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.