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Melbourne City vs Western Sydney — A-League 2018

Melbourne City
Melbourne City
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Western Sydney
Western Sydney
B. Schenkeveld 90+4'
R. De Laet 84', 1'
L. Brattan 38'
J. Sotirio 54'
T. Mourdoukoutas 49'
R. Bonevacia 28' (pen)
1/22/2019A-LeagueA-League · Round 15AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Melbourne City52%
×Draw22%
Western Sydney25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City
1.92
Western Sydney
1.27

Melbourne City creates 51% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 105 away

creates per match

Melbourne City
2.07
Western Sydney
1.51

allows per match

Melbourne City
1.04
Western Sydney
1.77

finishing

Melbourne City+0.00on par
Western Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City ↓

Western Sydney →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Melbourne City or draw
75%
Melbourne City or Western Sydney
78%
Draw or Western Sydney
48%

Winning margin

Melbourne City wins by 2+
30%
Western Sydney wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Melbourne City 1+ goals
85%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
57%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
30%
Western Sydney 1+ goals
72%
Western Sydney 2+ goals
36%
Western Sydney 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City (draw refunded)
67%
Western Sydney (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Western Sydney away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City attack 2.07 + Western Sydney defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.92

Western Sydney attack 1.51 + Melbourne City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Melbourne City scores more
52%
level
22%
Western Sydney scores more
25%

Melbourne City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
R. De LaetMelbourne CityMelbourne City · D
8.6

Match Events

1'
R. De Laet
28'
R. BonevaciaPenalty
32'
Roly Bonevacia
38'
L. Brattan↳ S. Jamieson
49'
T. Mourdoukoutas↳ J. O'Doherty
51'
Kearyn Baccus
54'
J. Sotirio↳ R. Bonevacia
56'
Ritchie De Laet
56'
Keanu Baccus
58'
L. Wales← F. Berenguer
62'
N. Atkinson← C. Good
66'
Keanu Baccus
66'
Keanu Baccus
72'
M. Tokich← R. Bonevacia
72'
B. Kamau← N. Fitzgerald
83'
M. Najjar← L. Brattan
84'
R. De Laet↳ R. McGree
85'
Lachlan Wales
86'
Oriol Riera← A. Majok
90'
Bart Schenkeveld
90+4'
B. Schenkeveld↳ S. Jamieson

Possession

59%Melbourne

Shots

24Melbourne

Pass accuracy

52%Melbourne

Statistics

MelbourneWestern
Overview
59%Possession41%
24Total Shots16
11Corners8
7Fouls15
Shots
24Total Shots16
10On Target8
7Off Target5
7Blocked3
16Inside Box6
8Outside Box10
Passing
59%Possession41%
483Total Passes335
387Accurate Passes245
80%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
5Saves7
Discipline
7Fouls15
4Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
3Offsides3

A-League: Melbourne City 4–3 Western Sydney

Melbourne City beat Western Sydney 4-3 in A-League on January 22, 2019.

Goals: R. De Laet (1', 84'), R. Bonevacia (28' pen), L. Brattan (38'), T. Mourdoukoutas (49'), J. Sotirio (54'), B. Schenkeveld (90+4').

Melbourne City controlled possession (59%) and registered 24 shots to 16.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.