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Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix — Australia Cup 2021

Melbourne City
Melbourne City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Wellington Phoenix
Wellington Phoenixadvanced
8/17/2022Australia CupAustralia Cup · Round of 16Casey Fields VFL Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Melbourne City45%
×Draw24%
Wellington Phoenix31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City
1.64
Wellington Phoenix
1.31

Melbourne City creates 25% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Melbourne City
1.67
Wellington Phoenix
1.30

allows per match

Melbourne City
1.33
Wellington Phoenix
1.60

finishing

Melbourne City+0.00on par
Wellington Phoenix+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City ↓

Wellington Phoenix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Melbourne City or draw
69%
Melbourne City or Wellington Phoenix
76%
Draw or Wellington Phoenix
55%

Winning margin

Melbourne City wins by 2+
23%
Wellington Phoenix wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Melbourne City 1+ goals
81%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
49%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
23%
Wellington Phoenix 1+ goals
73%
Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals
38%
Wellington Phoenix 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City (draw refunded)
60%
Wellington Phoenix (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Wellington Phoenix away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City attack 1.67 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Wellington Phoenix attack 1.30 + Melbourne City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Melbourne City scores more
45%
level
24%
Wellington Phoenix scores more
31%

Melbourne City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix

Wellington Phoenix beat Melbourne City 2-1 in Australia Cup on August 17, 2022.

The match was played at Casey Fields VFL Oval in Melbourne.