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Melbourne City vs Sydney FC — A-League 2018

Melbourne City
Melbourne City
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sydney FC
Sydney FC
11/2/2018A-LeagueA-League · Round 3AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Melbourne City48%
×Draw24%
Sydney FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City
1.69
Sydney FC
1.25

Melbourne City creates 35% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 112 away

creates per match

Melbourne City
2.07
Sydney FC
1.46

allows per match

Melbourne City
1.04
Sydney FC
1.30

finishing

Melbourne City+0.00on par
Sydney FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City ↓

Sydney FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Melbourne City or draw
72%
Melbourne City or Sydney FC
76%
Draw or Sydney FC
52%

Winning margin

Melbourne City wins by 2+
25%
Sydney FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Melbourne City 1+ goals
82%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
50%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
24%
Sydney FC 1+ goals
71%
Sydney FC 2+ goals
36%
Sydney FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City (draw refunded)
63%
Sydney FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Sydney FC away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.30 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City attack 2.07 + Sydney FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sydney FC attack 1.46 + Melbourne City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Melbourne City scores more
48%
level
24%
Sydney FC scores more
28%

Melbourne City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melbourne City vs Sydney FC

Sydney FC beat Melbourne City 3-0 in A-League on November 2, 2018.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.