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Melbourne City vs Sydney — Australia Cup 2021

Melbourne City
Melbourne City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sydney
Sydneyadvanced
9/24/2023Australia CupAustralia Cup · Semi-finalsAAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Melbourne City34%
×Draw24%
Sydney42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City
1.40
Sydney
1.60

Sydney creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Melbourne City
1.67
Sydney
1.88

allows per match

Melbourne City
1.33
Sydney
1.13

finishing

Melbourne City+0.00on par
Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City ↓

Sydney →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Melbourne City or draw
58%
Melbourne City or Sydney
76%
Draw or Sydney
66%

Winning margin

Melbourne City wins by 2+
15%
Sydney wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Melbourne City 1+ goals
75%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
41%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
17%
Sydney 1+ goals
80%
Sydney 2+ goals
47%
Sydney 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City (draw refunded)
44%
Sydney (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Sydney away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City attack 1.67 + Sydney defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sydney attack 1.88 + Melbourne City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Melbourne City scores more
34%
level
24%
Sydney scores more
42%

Sydney at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Australia Cup: Melbourne City 1–2 Sydney

Sydney beat Melbourne City 2-1 in Australia Cup on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.