Melbourne City 3–3 Macarthur: Result & Stats

Melbourne City

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Macarthur

11/12/2023

A-League · Round 4AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Melbourne City54%

×Draw22%

Macarthur24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melbourne CityExpected goals in this matchMacarthur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.21

Melbourne City

1.93

Macarthur

1.21

Melbourne City creates 60% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 81 away

2.07

creates per match

1.38

1.04

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Melbourne City

2.07

Macarthur

1.38

allows per match

Melbourne City

1.04

Macarthur

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melbourne City+0.00on par

Macarthur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City ↓

Macarthur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Melbourne City or draw

76%

Melbourne City or Macarthur

78%

Draw or Macarthur

46%

Winning margin

Melbourne City wins by 2+

31%

Macarthur wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Melbourne City 1+ goals

85%

Melbourne City 2+ goals

57%

Melbourne City 3+ goals

30%

Macarthur 1+ goals

70%

Macarthur 2+ goals

34%

Macarthur 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City (draw refunded)

69%

Macarthur (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Macarthur away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.79 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City attack 2.07 + Macarthur defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.93

Macarthur attack 1.38 + Melbourne City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Melbourne City scores more

54%

level

22%

Macarthur scores more

24%

Melbourne City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff