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Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar FC — A-League 2018

Melbourne City
Melbourne City
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Brisbane Roar FC
Brisbane Roar FC
4/5/2019A-LeagueA-League · Round 24AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Melbourne City56%
×Draw22%
Brisbane Roar FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City
1.90
Brisbane Roar FC
1.09

Melbourne City creates 74% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 105 away

creates per match

Melbourne City
2.07
Brisbane Roar FC
1.15

allows per match

Melbourne City
1.04
Brisbane Roar FC
1.72

finishing

Melbourne City+0.00on par
Brisbane Roar FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City ↓

Brisbane Roar FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Melbourne City or draw
78%
Melbourne City or Brisbane Roar FC
78%
Draw or Brisbane Roar FC
44%

Winning margin

Melbourne City wins by 2+
33%
Brisbane Roar FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Melbourne City 1+ goals
85%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
56%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
29%
Brisbane Roar FC 1+ goals
66%
Brisbane Roar FC 2+ goals
30%
Brisbane Roar FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City (draw refunded)
72%
Brisbane Roar FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Brisbane Roar FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City attack 2.07 + Brisbane Roar FC defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.90

Brisbane Roar FC attack 1.15 + Melbourne City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Melbourne City scores more
56%
level
22%
Brisbane Roar FC scores more
22%

Melbourne City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Melbourne City 4–1 Brisbane Roar FC

Melbourne City beat Brisbane Roar FC 4-1 in A-League on April 5, 2019.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.