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Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar — A-League 2018

Melbourne City
Melbourne City
FT
8 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Brisbane Roar
Brisbane Roar
12/28/2023A-LeagueA-League · Round 10AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Melbourne City56%
×Draw22%
Brisbane Roar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City
1.90
Brisbane Roar
1.09

Melbourne City creates 74% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 105 away

creates per match

Melbourne City
2.07
Brisbane Roar
1.15

allows per match

Melbourne City
1.04
Brisbane Roar
1.72

finishing

Melbourne City+0.00on par
Brisbane Roar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City ↓

Brisbane Roar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Melbourne City or draw
78%
Melbourne City or Brisbane Roar
78%
Draw or Brisbane Roar
44%

Winning margin

Melbourne City wins by 2+
33%
Brisbane Roar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Melbourne City 1+ goals
85%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
56%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
29%
Brisbane Roar 1+ goals
66%
Brisbane Roar 2+ goals
30%
Brisbane Roar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City (draw refunded)
72%
Brisbane Roar (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Brisbane Roar away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City attack 2.07 + Brisbane Roar defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.90

Brisbane Roar attack 1.15 + Melbourne City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Melbourne City scores more
56%
level
22%
Brisbane Roar scores more
22%

Melbourne City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar

Melbourne City beat Brisbane Roar 8-1 in A-League on December 28, 2023.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.