Melbourne City II vs Green Gully

Melbourne City II

Preview

05:00

Green Gully

8/29/2026

Victoria NPL · Round 26

42%

Melbourne City II

model favours

42%26%32%

Green Gully score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

under 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Melbourne City II42%

×Draw26%

Green Gully32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melbourne City IIExpected goals in this matchGreen Gully

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.22

Melbourne City II

1.43

Green Gully

1.22

Melbourne City II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 87 away

1.33

creates per match

1.32

1.11

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Melbourne City II

1.33

Green Gully

1.32

allows per match

Melbourne City II

1.11

Green Gully

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melbourne City II+0.00on par

Green Gully+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City II ↓

Green Gully →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Melbourne City II or draw

68%

Melbourne City II or Green Gully

74%

Draw or Green Gully

58%

Winning margin

Melbourne City II wins by 2+

20%

Green Gully wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Melbourne City II 1+ goals

76%

Melbourne City II 2+ goals

42%

Melbourne City II 3+ goals

17%

Green Gully 1+ goals

70%

Green Gully 2+ goals

34%

Green Gully 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City II (draw refunded)

57%

Green Gully (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Green Gully away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City II attack 1.33 + Green Gully defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Green Gully attack 1.32 + Melbourne City II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Melbourne City II scores more

42%

level

26%

Green Gully scores more

32%

Melbourne City II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Melbourne City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 85% of Green Gully’s matches
77% of Green Gully’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

II

DWWLL

Gully

LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff