Medjimurje Cakovec 1–4 HNK Hajduk Split II

Medjimurje Cakovec

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

HNK Hajduk Split II

10/13/2018

First NL · Round 8Stadion SRC Mladost (Čakovec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Medjimurje Cakovec40%

×Draw24%

HNK Hajduk Split II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Medjimurje CakovecExpected goals in this matchHNK Hajduk Split II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.44

Medjimurje Cakovec

1.54

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 42 away

1.52

creates per match

1.36

1.52

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Medjimurje Cakovec

1.52

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.36

allows per match

Medjimurje Cakovec

1.52

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Medjimurje Cakovec+0.00on par

HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medjimurje Cakovec ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Medjimurje Cakovec or draw

64%

Medjimurje Cakovec or HNK Hajduk Split II

76%

Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II

60%

Winning margin

Medjimurje Cakovec wins by 2+

20%

HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Medjimurje Cakovec 1+ goals

79%

Medjimurje Cakovec 2+ goals

45%

Medjimurje Cakovec 3+ goals

20%

HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals

76%

HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals

42%

HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Medjimurje Cakovec (draw refunded)

53%

HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medjimurje Cakovec at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.52 · 40 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medjimurje Cakovec attack 1.52 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.36 + Medjimurje Cakovec defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Medjimurje Cakovec scores more

40%

level

24%

HNK Hajduk Split II scores more

36%

Medjimurje Cakovec at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Medjimurje Cakovec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff