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Mechtersheim vs Wormatia Worms — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Mechtersheim
Mechtersheim
CANC
14:30
Wormatia Worms
Wormatia Worms
11/28/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 14Stadion an der Kirschenallee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Mechtersheim40%
×Draw22%
Wormatia Worms38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mechtersheim
1.81
Wormatia Worms
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 68 away

creates per match

Mechtersheim
1.90
Wormatia Worms
1.99

allows per match

Mechtersheim
1.51
Wormatia Worms
1.72

finishing

Mechtersheim+0.00on par
Wormatia Worms+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mechtersheim ↓

Wormatia Worms →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Mechtersheim or draw
62%
Mechtersheim or Wormatia Worms
78%
Draw or Wormatia Worms
60%

Winning margin

Mechtersheim wins by 2+
21%
Wormatia Worms wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Mechtersheim 1+ goals
84%
Mechtersheim 2+ goals
54%
Mechtersheim 3+ goals
27%
Wormatia Worms 1+ goals
83%
Wormatia Worms 2+ goals
52%
Wormatia Worms 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Mechtersheim (draw refunded)
52%
Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mechtersheim at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

Wormatia Worms away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mechtersheim attack 1.90 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.81

Wormatia Worms attack 1.99 + Mechtersheim defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mechtersheim scores more
40%
level
22%
Wormatia Worms scores more
38%

Mechtersheim at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mechtersheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mechtersheim host Wormatia Worms

November 28, 2020: Mechtersheim take on Wormatia Worms in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mechtersheim host Wormatia Worms at Stadion an der Kirschenallee.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.