Mechtersheim 1–1 FV Engers 07: Result & Stats

Mechtersheim

FT

1 – 1

FV Engers 07

4/22/2023

Oberliga - Promotion Round · Rh/Pf/S - Promotion Round - 5Stadion an der Kirschenallee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mechtersheim46%

×Draw27%

FV Engers 0727%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MechtersheimExpected goals in this matchFV Engers 07

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.00

Mechtersheim

1.40

FV Engers 07

1.00

Mechtersheim creates 40% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

0.40

1.60

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Mechtersheim

1.00

FV Engers 07

0.40

allows per match

Mechtersheim

1.60

FV Engers 07

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mechtersheim+0.00on par

FV Engers 07+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mechtersheim ↓

FV Engers 07 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mechtersheim or draw

73%

Mechtersheim or FV Engers 07

73%

Draw or FV Engers 07

54%

Winning margin

Mechtersheim wins by 2+

22%

FV Engers 07 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mechtersheim 1+ goals

75%

Mechtersheim 2+ goals

41%

Mechtersheim 3+ goals

17%

FV Engers 07 1+ goals

63%

FV Engers 07 2+ goals

26%

FV Engers 07 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mechtersheim (draw refunded)

63%

FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mechtersheim at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

FV Engers 07 away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mechtersheim attack 1.00 + FV Engers 07 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

FV Engers 07 attack 0.40 + Mechtersheim defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mechtersheim scores more

46%

level

27%

FV Engers 07 scores more

27%

Mechtersheim at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mechtersheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff