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Mechtersheim vs Diefflen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Mechtersheim
Mechtersheim
FT
0 – 2
Diefflen
Diefflen
10/10/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 7Stadion an der Kirschenallee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Mechtersheim49%
×Draw21%
Diefflen30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mechtersheim
2.12
Diefflen
1.64

Mechtersheim creates 29% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 79 away

creates per match

Mechtersheim
1.90
Diefflen
1.77

allows per match

Mechtersheim
1.51
Diefflen
2.34

finishing

Mechtersheim+0.00on par
Diefflen+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mechtersheim ↓

Diefflen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Mechtersheim or draw
70%
Mechtersheim or Diefflen
79%
Draw or Diefflen
51%

Winning margin

Mechtersheim wins by 2+
28%
Diefflen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mechtersheim 1+ goals
88%
Mechtersheim 2+ goals
62%
Mechtersheim 3+ goals
35%
Diefflen 1+ goals
81%
Diefflen 2+ goals
49%
Diefflen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Mechtersheim (draw refunded)
62%
Diefflen (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mechtersheim at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

Diefflen away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.34 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mechtersheim attack 1.90 + Diefflen defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.12

Diefflen attack 1.77 + Mechtersheim defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mechtersheim scores more
49%
level
21%
Diefflen scores more
30%

Mechtersheim at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mechtersheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mechtersheim vs Diefflen

Diefflen beat Mechtersheim 2-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion an der Kirschenallee in Römerberg.