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MC Oran vs Khenchela — Ligue 1 2018

MC Oran
MC Oran
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Khenchela
Khenchela
11/17/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 6Stade Olympique d'Oran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

MC Oran55%
×Draw25%
Khenchela19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MC Oran
1.56
Khenchela
0.81

MC Oran creates 93% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 60 away

creates per match

MC Oran
1.40
Khenchela
0.88

allows per match

MC Oran
0.75
Khenchela
1.73

finishing

MC Oran+0.00on par
Khenchela+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Oran ↓

Khenchela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

MC Oran or draw
81%
MC Oran or Khenchela
75%
Draw or Khenchela
45%

Winning margin

MC Oran wins by 2+
29%
Khenchela wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

MC Oran 1+ goals
79%
MC Oran 2+ goals
46%
MC Oran 3+ goals
21%
Khenchela 1+ goals
56%
Khenchela 2+ goals
19%
Khenchela 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

MC Oran (draw refunded)
74%
Khenchela (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Oran at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.75 · 123 matches

Khenchela away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.73 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Oran attack 1.40 + Khenchela defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.56

Khenchela attack 0.88 + MC Oran defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

MC Oran scores more
55%
level
25%
Khenchela scores more
19%

MC Oran at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "MC Oran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: MC Oran 1–0 Khenchela

MC Oran beat Khenchela 1-0 in Ligue 1 on November 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Olympique d'Oran in Bir El Djir.