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Mazatlán vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Mazatlán
Mazatlán
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
N. Benedetti 44'
J. Dinenno 75'
E. Salvio 50'
2/25/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 9Estadio de Mazatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Mazatlán41%
×Draw25%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mazatlán
1.46
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.30

Mazatlán creates 12% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 151 away

creates per match

Mazatlán
1.37
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.13

allows per match

Mazatlán
1.47
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.54

finishing

Mazatlán+0.00on par
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazatlán ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mazatlán or draw
66%
Mazatlán or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
75%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
59%

Winning margin

Mazatlán wins by 2+
20%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mazatlán 1+ goals
77%
Mazatlán 2+ goals
43%
Mazatlán 3+ goals
18%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
73%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
37%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mazatlán (draw refunded)
55%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazatlán at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 102 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazatlán attack 1.37 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Mazatlán defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mazatlán scores more
41%
level
25%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
34%

Mazatlán at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mazatlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. SalvioU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · M
8.2

Match Events

11'
C. S. Huerta Valera
27'
A. Montano
37'
R. Meraz
44'
N. Benedetti↳ J. Colmán
46'
E. Bello← J. Colmán
46'
N. Vidrio← F. Venegas
46'
A. Álvarez← H. Ramírez
50'
E. Salvio↳ G. del Prete
57'
B. Colula← A. Montaño
63'
N. Benedetti
65'
M. Fabián← N. Benedetti
65'
M. Sansores← A. Loba
75'
J. Dinenno↳ G. del Prete
77'
U. Rivas← J. Molina
88'
S. Trigos← G. del Prete
88'
C. Gutiérrez← Higor Meritão
88'
J. Sánchez← C. Huerta
90+8'
N. VidrioGoal Disallowed

Possession

48%Mazatlán

Shots

13Mazatlán

Pass accuracy

50%Mazatlán

Statistics

MazatlánU.N.A.M.
Overview
48%Possession52%
13Total Shots24
6Corners8
12Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots24
2On Target8
5Off Target7
6Blocked9
6Inside Box18
7Outside Box6
Passing
48%Possession52%
433Total Passes476
357Accurate Passes394
82%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls14
3Yellow Cards1
4Offsides0

Liga MX: Mazatlán 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat Mazatlán 2-1 in Liga MX on February 25, 2023.

Goals: N. Benedetti (44'), E. Salvio (50'), J. Dinenno (75').

U.N.A.M. - Pumas controlled possession (52%) and registered 24 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio de Mazatlán in Mazatlán.