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Mazatlán vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Mazatlán
Mazatlán
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
D. Amador 90'
Camilo Sanvezzo 21' (pen)
Rogério 84'
J. Dinenno 56'
9/19/2021Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 9Estadio de Mazatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Mazatlán41%
×Draw25%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mazatlán
1.46
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.30

Mazatlán creates 12% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 151 away

creates per match

Mazatlán
1.37
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.13

allows per match

Mazatlán
1.47
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.54

finishing

Mazatlán+0.00on par
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazatlán ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mazatlán or draw
66%
Mazatlán or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
75%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
59%

Winning margin

Mazatlán wins by 2+
20%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mazatlán 1+ goals
77%
Mazatlán 2+ goals
43%
Mazatlán 3+ goals
18%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
73%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
37%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mazatlán (draw refunded)
55%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazatlán at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 102 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazatlán attack 1.37 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Mazatlán defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mazatlán scores more
41%
level
25%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
34%

Mazatlán at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mazatlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
RogérioU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · F
8.2

Match Events

19'
Camilo SanvezzoPenalty cancelled
19'
Camilo SanvezzoPenalty cancelled
20'
Efraín Velarde
21'
Alfredo Talavera
21'
Camilo SanvezzoPenalty
43'
Nicolás Vikonis
46'
L. López← M. García
46'
Rogério← P. Bennevendo
56'
J. Dinenno↳ F. Álvarez
68'
E. Sánchez← J. Zárate
73'
S. Rodríguez← Camilo Sanvezzo
73'
M. Rangel← I. Moreno
76'
G. Torres← F. Álvarez
83'
S. Arce← Giovanni Augusto
83'
D. Amador← R. Meraz
84'
Rogério↳ A. Mozo
87'
C. Battocchio← W. Corozo
90'
D. Amador↳ S. Rodríguez

Possession

50%Mazatlán

Shots

8Mazatlán

Pass accuracy

48%Mazatlán

Statistics

MazatlánU.N.A.M.
Overview
50%Possession50%
8Total Shots21
1Corners7
3Fouls7
Shots
8Total Shots21
2On Target6
5Off Target13
1Blocked2
5Inside Box14
3Outside Box7
Passing
50%Possession50%
430Total Passes422
338Accurate Passes355
79%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
3Fouls7
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Liga MX: Mazatlán 2–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Mazatlán and U.N.A.M. - Pumas drew 2-2 in Liga MX on September 19, 2021.

Goals: Camilo Sanvezzo (21' pen), J. Dinenno (56'), Rogério (84'), D. Amador (90').

Mazatlán controlled possession (50%) and registered 8 shots to 21.

The match was played at Estadio de Mazatlán in Mazatlán.