Mazatlán 0–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

Mazatlán

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

8/16/2020

Liga MX · Apertura - 5Estadio de Mazatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Mazatlán41%

×Draw25%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MazatlánExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.30

Mazatlán

1.46

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.30

Mazatlán creates 12% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 151 away

1.37

creates per match

1.13

1.47

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Mazatlán

1.37

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.13

allows per match

Mazatlán

1.47

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mazatlán+0.00on par

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazatlán ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mazatlán or draw

66%

Mazatlán or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

75%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

59%

Winning margin

Mazatlán wins by 2+

20%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mazatlán 1+ goals

77%

Mazatlán 2+ goals

43%

Mazatlán 3+ goals

18%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

73%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

37%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mazatlán (draw refunded)

55%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazatlán at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 102 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazatlán attack 1.37 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Mazatlán defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mazatlán scores more

41%

level

25%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

34%

Mazatlán at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mazatlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Talavera

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · G

7.5

Match Events

7'

Efraín Velarde

46'

Jerónimo Rodríguez← L. Quintana

52'

Leonel López

59'

M. Sansores← F. Aristeguieta

60'

Juan Iturbe

61'

C. Gutiérrez← S. Saucedo

68'

Camilo Sanvezzo← M. Osuna

75'

F. Álvarez← L. López

76'

Favio Álvarez

84'

E. Lira← J. Iturbe

86'

C. Ramírez← M. Rodríguez

88'

Miguel Sansores

90'

Juan Dinenno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MazatlánU.N.A.M.

Overview

58%Possession42%

4Total Shots10

1Corners8

9Fouls18

Shots

4Total Shots10

2On Target2

2Off Target7

0Blocked1

2Inside Box10

2Outside Box0

Passing

58%Possession42%

500Total Passes332

429Accurate Passes269

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4

6Offsides1

Liga MX: Mazatlán 0–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Mazatlán and U.N.A.M. - Pumas drew 0-0 in Liga MX on August 16, 2020.

Mazatlán controlled possession (58%) and registered 4 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio de Mazatlán in Mazatlán.

Mazatlán vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga MX: Mazatlán 0–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas