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Mazatlán vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

Mazatlán
Mazatlán
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
11/2/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio El Encanto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Mazatlán45%
×Draw24%
Santos Laguna30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mazatlán
1.62
Santos Laguna
1.28

Mazatlán creates 27% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 142 away

creates per match

Mazatlán
1.37
Santos Laguna
1.09

allows per match

Mazatlán
1.47
Santos Laguna
1.87

finishing

Mazatlán+0.00on par
Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazatlán ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mazatlán or draw
70%
Mazatlán or Santos Laguna
76%
Draw or Santos Laguna
55%

Winning margin

Mazatlán wins by 2+
23%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mazatlán 1+ goals
80%
Mazatlán 2+ goals
48%
Mazatlán 3+ goals
22%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
72%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
37%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mazatlán (draw refunded)
60%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazatlán at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 102 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.87 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazatlán attack 1.37 + Santos Laguna defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.62

Santos Laguna attack 1.09 + Mazatlán defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mazatlán scores more
45%
level
24%
Santos Laguna scores more
30%

Mazatlán at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mazatlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mazatlán vs Santos Laguna

Mazatlán beat Santos Laguna 3-1 in Liga MX on November 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Encanto in Mazatlán.