Mazatlán 1–2 Leon: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Mazatlán

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Leon

B. Colula 11'

B. Rubio 80'

F. Ambríz 2'

3/25/2023

Liga MX · Clausura - 1Estadio de Mazatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Mazatlán39%

×Draw25%

Leon36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MazatlánExpected goals in this matchLeon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.36

Mazatlán

1.43

Leon

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 145 away

1.37

creates per match

1.26

1.47

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Mazatlán

1.37

Leon

1.26

allows per match

Mazatlán

1.47

Leon

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mazatlán+0.00on par

Leon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazatlán ↓

Leon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mazatlán or draw

64%

Mazatlán or Leon

75%

Draw or Leon

61%

Winning margin

Mazatlán wins by 2+

18%

Leon wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Mazatlán 1+ goals

76%

Mazatlán 2+ goals

42%

Mazatlán 3+ goals

17%

Leon 1+ goals

74%

Leon 2+ goals

39%

Leon 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Mazatlán (draw refunded)

52%

Leon (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazatlán at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 102 matches

Leon away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.48 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazatlán attack 1.37 + Leon defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Leon attack 1.26 + Mazatlán defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mazatlán scores more

39%

level

25%

Leon scores more

36%

Mazatlán at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mazatlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

B. Colula

Mazatlán · D

7.6

Match Events

2'

F. Ambríz

11'

B. Colula

49'

F. Venegas← B. Colula

52'

Francisco Venegas

55'

M. Fabián← M. Sansores

56'

R. Camacho← O. Moreno

64'

P. Bellón← Ó. Villa

64'

B. Rubio← L. Di Yorio

68'

Lucas Romero

71'

J. Angulo← E. Hernández

80'

B. Rubio↳ I. Moreno

85'

E. Orona← A. Montaño

90+4'

B. Castillo← A. Alvarado

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MazatlánLeon

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots12

2Corners2

15Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots12

3On Target6

9Off Target5

2Blocked1

7Inside Box8

7Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

349Total Passes419

237Accurate Passes309

68%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides7