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Maua vs Uniao Mogi — Paulista Série B 2026

Maua
Maua
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Uniao Mogi
Uniao Mogi
Andrey 84'
S. Silva 25'
Matheuzinho 21'
Diego Baiano 79'
Carlos Daniel 39'
Ermeson 30'
5/10/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Maua48%
×Draw26%
Uniao Mogi26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maua
1.46
Uniao Mogi
1.00

Maua creates 46% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 16 away

creates per match

Maua
1.36
Uniao Mogi
1.06

allows per match

Maua
0.95
Uniao Mogi
1.56

finishing

Maua+0.00on par
Uniao Mogi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maua ↓

Uniao Mogi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Maua or draw
74%
Maua or Uniao Mogi
74%
Draw or Uniao Mogi
52%

Winning margin

Maua wins by 2+
24%
Uniao Mogi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Maua 1+ goals
77%
Maua 2+ goals
43%
Maua 3+ goals
18%
Uniao Mogi 1+ goals
63%
Uniao Mogi 2+ goals
26%
Uniao Mogi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Maua (draw refunded)
65%
Uniao Mogi (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maua at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Uniao Mogi away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maua attack 1.36 + Uniao Mogi defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Uniao Mogi attack 1.06 + Maua defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Maua scores more
48%
level
26%
Uniao Mogi scores more
26%

Maua at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Maua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Matheuzinho
25'
S. Silva
30'
Ermeson
39'
Carlos Daniel
79'
Diego Baiano
84'
Andrey

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maua vs Uniao Mogi

Maua and Uniao Mogi drew 3-3 in Paulista Série B on May 10, 2025.

Goals: Matheuzinho (21'), S. Silva (25'), Ermeson (30'), Carlos Daniel (39'), Diego Baiano (79'), Andrey (84').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti in Mauá, São Paulo.