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Mauá U20 vs Palmeiras U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Mauá U20
Mauá U20
Preview
18:00
Palmeiras U20
Palmeiras U20
8/1/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 9
49%
Palmeiras U20
model favours
26%25%49%

Palmeiras U20 have scored in 23 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mauá U2026%
×Draw25%
Palmeiras U2049%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauá U20
1.10
Palmeiras U20
1.60

Palmeiras U20 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 27 away

creates per match

Mauá U20
1.47
Palmeiras U20
2.15

allows per match

Mauá U20
1.06
Palmeiras U20
0.74

finishing

Mauá U20+0.00on par
Palmeiras U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauá U20 ↓

Palmeiras U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mauá U20 or draw
51%
Mauá U20 or Palmeiras U20
75%
Draw or Palmeiras U20
74%

Winning margin

Mauá U20 wins by 2+
10%
Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Mauá U20 1+ goals
67%
Mauá U20 2+ goals
30%
Mauá U20 3+ goals
10%
Palmeiras U20 1+ goals
80%
Palmeiras U20 2+ goals
47%
Palmeiras U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Mauá U20 (draw refunded)
35%
Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauá U20 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Palmeiras U20 away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauá U20 attack 1.47 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.10

Palmeiras U20 attack 2.15 + Mauá U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mauá U20 scores more
26%
level
25%
Palmeiras U20 scores more
49%

Palmeiras U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Palmeiras U20 are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Mauá U20 score first in only 31% of matches
  • 65% of Palmeiras U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 31% of Palmeiras U20’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 20% of Palmeiras U20’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LDLWL
U20
DDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mauá U20 face Palmeiras U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with Mauá U20 hosting Palmeiras U20. Match starts August 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.