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Mauá U20 vs Capivariano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Mauá U20
Mauá U20
Preview
18:00
Capivariano U20
Capivariano U20
9/4/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 14
43%
Mauá U20
model favours
43%26%31%

Mauá U20 score first in only 31% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mauá U2043%
×Draw26%
Capivariano U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauá U20
1.44
Capivariano U20
1.18

Mauá U20 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mauá U20
1.47
Capivariano U20
1.29

allows per match

Mauá U20
1.06
Capivariano U20
1.41

finishing

Mauá U20+0.00on par
Capivariano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauá U20 ↓

Capivariano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mauá U20 or draw
69%
Mauá U20 or Capivariano U20
74%
Draw or Capivariano U20
57%

Winning margin

Mauá U20 wins by 2+
21%
Capivariano U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mauá U20 1+ goals
76%
Mauá U20 2+ goals
42%
Mauá U20 3+ goals
18%
Capivariano U20 1+ goals
69%
Capivariano U20 2+ goals
33%
Capivariano U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mauá U20 (draw refunded)
58%
Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauá U20 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Capivariano U20 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauá U20 attack 1.47 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Capivariano U20 attack 1.29 + Mauá U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mauá U20 scores more
43%
level
26%
Capivariano U20 scores more
31%

Mauá U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mauá U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
LDLWL
U20
WDDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mauá U20 host Capivariano U20

September 4, 2026: Mauá U20 take on Capivariano U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.