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Matsumoto Yamaga vs Ventforet Kofu — J2 League 2018

Matsumoto Yamaga
Matsumoto Yamaga
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ventforet Kofu
Ventforet Kofu
7/4/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 3Sunpro Alwin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Matsumoto Yamaga35%
×Draw28%
Ventforet Kofu37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matsumoto Yamaga
1.18
Ventforet Kofu
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 166 away

creates per match

Matsumoto Yamaga
1.22
Ventforet Kofu
1.29

allows per match

Matsumoto Yamaga
1.13
Ventforet Kofu
1.14

finishing

Matsumoto Yamaga+0.00on par
Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matsumoto Yamaga ↓

Ventforet Kofu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Matsumoto Yamaga or draw
63%
Matsumoto Yamaga or Ventforet Kofu
72%
Draw or Ventforet Kofu
65%

Winning margin

Matsumoto Yamaga wins by 2+
15%
Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Matsumoto Yamaga 1+ goals
69%
Matsumoto Yamaga 2+ goals
33%
Matsumoto Yamaga 3+ goals
12%
Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals
70%
Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals
34%
Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Matsumoto Yamaga (draw refunded)
49%
Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matsumoto Yamaga at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

Ventforet Kofu away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 166 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matsumoto Yamaga attack 1.22 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.18

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.29 + Matsumoto Yamaga defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Matsumoto Yamaga scores more
35%
level
28%
Ventforet Kofu scores more
37%

Ventforet Kofu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Matsumoto Yamaga vs Ventforet Kofu

Matsumoto Yamaga and Ventforet Kofu drew 1-1 in J2 League on July 4, 2020.

The match was played at Sunpro Alwin Stadium in Matsumoto.