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Masters FC vs Moyale Barracks — Super League 2026

Masters FC
Masters FC
Preview
12:30
Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
1/3/2027Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25
59%
Masters FC
model favours
59%24%16%

90% of Moyale Barracks’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Masters FC59%
×Draw24%
Moyale Barracks16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masters FC
1.65
Moyale Barracks
0.73

Masters FC creates 126% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 84 away

creates per match

Masters FC
1.80
Moyale Barracks
0.86

allows per match

Masters FC
0.60
Moyale Barracks
1.50

finishing

Masters FC+0.00on par
Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masters FC ↓

Moyale Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Masters FC or draw
84%
Masters FC or Moyale Barracks
76%
Draw or Moyale Barracks
41%

Winning margin

Masters FC wins by 2+
33%
Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Masters FC 1+ goals
81%
Masters FC 2+ goals
49%
Masters FC 3+ goals
23%
Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
52%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
17%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Masters FC (draw refunded)
78%
Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masters FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masters FC attack 1.80 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + Masters FC defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Masters FC scores more
59%
level
24%
Moyale Barracks scores more
16%

Masters FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Masters FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 10% of Moyale Barracks’s matches
  • Moyale Barracks score first in only 30% of matches
  • Masters FC and Moyale Barracks have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
WLLL
Barracks
LDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Masters FC face Moyale Barracks (Super League)

Super League returns with Masters FC hosting Moyale Barracks. Match starts January 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.