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Mashuk-KMV vs Kuban Kholding — Second League - Group 1 2020

Mashuk-KMV
Mashuk-KMV
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
4/30/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Central'nyj Stadion Mashuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Mashuk-KMV34%
×Draw27%
Kuban Kholding39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mashuk-KMV
1.20
Kuban Kholding
1.32

Kuban Kholding creates 10% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 91 away

creates per match

Mashuk-KMV
1.43
Kuban Kholding
1.35

allows per match

Mashuk-KMV
1.29
Kuban Kholding
0.97

finishing

Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par
Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashuk-KMV ↓

Kuban Kholding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mashuk-KMV or draw
61%
Mashuk-KMV or Kuban Kholding
73%
Draw or Kuban Kholding
66%

Winning margin

Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+
14%
Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals
70%
Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals
34%
Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals
12%
Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
73%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
38%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)
46%
Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashuk-KMV at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 56 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.43 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.20

Kuban Kholding attack 1.35 + Mashuk-KMV defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mashuk-KMV scores more
34%
level
27%
Kuban Kholding scores more
39%

Kuban Kholding at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Mashuk-KMV 3–3 Kuban Kholding

Mashuk-KMV and Kuban Kholding drew 3-3 in Second League - Group 1 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Mashuk in Pyatigorsk.