Mash'al 0–0 Andijan: Result & Stats | Super League

Mash'al

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Andijan

8/18/2020

Super League · Round 10Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Mash'al39%

×Draw29%

Andijan33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mash'alExpected goals in this matchAndijan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.05

Mash'al

1.17

Andijan

1.05

Mash'al creates 11% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 88 away

0.75

creates per match

0.97

1.13

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Mash'al

0.75

Andijan

0.97

allows per match

Mash'al

1.13

Andijan

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mash'al+0.00on par

Andijan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mash'al ↓

Andijan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mash'al or draw

67%

Mash'al or Andijan

71%

Draw or Andijan

61%

Winning margin

Mash'al wins by 2+

16%

Andijan wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mash'al 1+ goals

69%

Mash'al 2+ goals

33%

Mash'al 3+ goals

11%

Andijan 1+ goals

65%

Andijan 2+ goals

28%

Andijan 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mash'al (draw refunded)

54%

Andijan (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mash'al at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

Andijan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.58 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mash'al attack 0.75 + Andijan defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.17

Andijan attack 0.97 + Mash'al defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mash'al scores more

39%

level

29%

Andijan scores more

33%

Mash'al at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mash'al will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

S. Kuziyev

69'

S. Meliev← T. Usmanov

73'

N. Pavlenko← A. Ella

75'

86'

88'

M. Yuldoshev← N. Mavlyanov

Mash'al

Andijan

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Vaniyev

73'▲N. Pavlenko←▼A. Ella

Mash'al substitutes

PavlenkoNorqobilovNosirovVasilyevNumonovAliqulovAkromovTursunov

Manager: V. Kumykov

69'▲S. Meliev←▼T. Usmanov

88'▲M. Yuldoshev←▼N. Mavlyanov

Andijan substitutes

MelievYuldoshevAkhrorovOlimovKasymovAvilovAzizov