Martigny Sports vs Olympique de Genève — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 14+ matches
Martigny Sports45%
Olympique de Genève30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Martigny Sports creates 26% more chances
Season form · 56 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Martigny Sports ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Martigny Sports at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.13 · 56 matches
Olympique de Genève away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Martigny Sports attack 1.36 + Olympique de Genève defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.61
Olympique de Genève attack 0.43 + Martigny Sports defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.28
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Martigny Sports at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Martigny Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Servette II
Amical Saint-Prex
Chênois
Monthey
Prishtina Bern
Portalban / Gletterens
Lancy
Echallens
Naters
Stade Payerne
Meyrin
Coffrane
Sion II
La Chaux-de-FondsMartigny Sports
La Sarraz-EclépensIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Martigny Sports host Olympique de Genève on Saturday, 22 May 2021 at 14:00. The match is part of the 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019/2020 season.
Martigny Sports face Olympique de Genève (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
1. Liga Classic - Group 1 returns with Martigny Sports hosting Olympique de Genève. Match starts May 22, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Martigny Sports host Olympique de Genève at Stade d'Octodure.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.