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Marquense vs Suchitepéquez — Liga Nacional 2019

Marquense
Marquense
Preview
20:00
Suchitepéquez
Suchitepéquez
10/14/2026Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Round 15Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada
51%
Marquense
model favours
51%23%25%

Marquense and Suchitepéquez have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Marquense51%
×Draw23%
Suchitepéquez25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marquense
1.79
Suchitepéquez
1.19

Marquense creates 50% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 3 away

creates per match

Marquense
1.26
Suchitepéquez
1.67

allows per match

Marquense
0.72
Suchitepéquez
2.33

finishing

Marquense+0.00on par
Suchitepéquez+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marquense ↓

Suchitepéquez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Marquense or draw
75%
Marquense or Suchitepéquez
77%
Draw or Suchitepéquez
49%

Winning margin

Marquense wins by 2+
28%
Suchitepéquez wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Marquense 1+ goals
83%
Marquense 2+ goals
53%
Marquense 3+ goals
26%
Suchitepéquez 1+ goals
70%
Suchitepéquez 2+ goals
33%
Suchitepéquez 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Marquense (draw refunded)
67%
Suchitepéquez (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marquense at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.72 · 43 matches

Suchitepéquez away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marquense attack 1.26 + Suchitepéquez defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Suchitepéquez attack 1.67 + Marquense defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Marquense scores more
51%
level
23%
Suchitepéquez scores more
25%

Marquense at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Marquense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Marquense
LDLLW
Suchitepéquez
LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Marquense host Suchitepéquez

October 14, 2026: Marquense take on Suchitepéquez in Liga Nacional. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Marquense host Suchitepéquez at Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.