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Maroons vs NEC — Premier League 2019

Maroons
Maroons
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
NEC
NEC
11/11/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Luzira Maximum Prisons Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Maroons37%
×Draw31%
NEC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maroons
1.02
NEC
0.92

Maroons creates 11% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 44 away

creates per match

Maroons
1.11
NEC
1.07

allows per match

Maroons
0.76
NEC
0.93

finishing

Maroons+0.00on par
NEC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maroons ↓

NEC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Maroons or draw
68%
Maroons or NEC
69%
Draw or NEC
63%

Winning margin

Maroons wins by 2+
14%
NEC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Maroons 1+ goals
64%
Maroons 2+ goals
27%
Maroons 3+ goals
8%
NEC 1+ goals
60%
NEC 2+ goals
23%
NEC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Maroons (draw refunded)
54%
NEC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maroons at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.76 · 71 matches

NEC away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maroons attack 1.11 + NEC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

NEC attack 1.07 + Maroons defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Maroons scores more
37%
level
31%
NEC scores more
32%

Maroons at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Maroons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Maroons 0–1 NEC

NEC beat Maroons 1-0 in Premier League on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Luzira Maximum Prisons Stadium in Kampala.