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Markt Allhau vs Pinkafeld — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Markt Allhau
Markt Allhau
CANC
14:00
Pinkafeld
Pinkafeld
11/21/2020Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Markt Allhau32%
×Draw23%
Pinkafeld45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Markt Allhau
1.50
Pinkafeld
1.81

Pinkafeld creates 21% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 72 away

creates per match

Markt Allhau
1.00
Pinkafeld
1.82

allows per match

Markt Allhau
1.79
Pinkafeld
2.00

finishing

Markt Allhau+0.00on par
Pinkafeld+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Markt Allhau ↓

Pinkafeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Markt Allhau or draw
55%
Markt Allhau or Pinkafeld
77%
Draw or Pinkafeld
68%

Winning margin

Markt Allhau wins by 2+
15%
Pinkafeld wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Markt Allhau 1+ goals
78%
Markt Allhau 2+ goals
44%
Markt Allhau 3+ goals
19%
Pinkafeld 1+ goals
84%
Pinkafeld 2+ goals
54%
Pinkafeld 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Markt Allhau (draw refunded)
42%
Pinkafeld (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Markt Allhau at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

Pinkafeld away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.00 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Markt Allhau attack 1.00 + Pinkafeld defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pinkafeld attack 1.82 + Markt Allhau defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Markt Allhau scores more
32%
level
23%
Pinkafeld scores more
45%

Pinkafeld at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pinkafeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Markt Allhau face Pinkafeld (Landesliga - Burgenland)

Landesliga - Burgenland returns with Markt Allhau hosting Pinkafeld. Match starts November 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.