Markt Allhau 2–1 Bad Sauerbrunn: Result & Stats

Markt Allhau

FT

2 – 1

Bad Sauerbrunn

9/28/2019

Landesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 9z-immobilien arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Markt Allhau29%

×Draw24%

Bad Sauerbrunn47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Markt AllhauExpected goals in this matchBad Sauerbrunn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.67

Markt Allhau

1.28

Bad Sauerbrunn

1.67

Bad Sauerbrunn creates 30% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 85 away

1.00

creates per match

1.55

1.79

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Markt Allhau

1.00

Bad Sauerbrunn

1.55

allows per match

Markt Allhau

1.79

Bad Sauerbrunn

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Markt Allhau+0.00on par

Bad Sauerbrunn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Markt Allhau ↓

Bad Sauerbrunn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Markt Allhau or draw

53%

Markt Allhau or Bad Sauerbrunn

76%

Draw or Bad Sauerbrunn

71%

Winning margin

Markt Allhau wins by 2+

12%

Bad Sauerbrunn wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Markt Allhau 1+ goals

72%

Markt Allhau 2+ goals

37%

Markt Allhau 3+ goals

14%

Bad Sauerbrunn 1+ goals

81%

Bad Sauerbrunn 2+ goals

50%

Bad Sauerbrunn 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Markt Allhau (draw refunded)

39%

Bad Sauerbrunn (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Markt Allhau at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

Bad Sauerbrunn away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.56 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Markt Allhau attack 1.00 + Bad Sauerbrunn defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Bad Sauerbrunn attack 1.55 + Markt Allhau defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Markt Allhau scores more

29%

level

24%

Bad Sauerbrunn scores more

47%

Bad Sauerbrunn at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bad Sauerbrunn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff