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Marítimo W vs Sporting Braga W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Marítimo W
Marítimo W
FT
4 – 1
Sporting Braga W
Sporting Braga W
11/25/20231a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 8Estádio dos Barreiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Marítimo W26%
×Draw22%
Sporting Braga W52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marítimo W
1.36
Sporting Braga W
2.01

Sporting Braga W creates 48% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 42 away

creates per match

Marítimo W
1.47
Sporting Braga W
2.07

allows per match

Marítimo W
1.95
Sporting Braga W
1.26

finishing

Marítimo W+0.00on par
Sporting Braga W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marítimo W ↓

Sporting Braga W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Marítimo W or draw
48%
Marítimo W or Sporting Braga W
78%
Draw or Sporting Braga W
74%

Winning margin

Marítimo W wins by 2+
11%
Sporting Braga W wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Marítimo W 1+ goals
74%
Marítimo W 2+ goals
39%
Marítimo W 3+ goals
16%
Sporting Braga W 1+ goals
87%
Sporting Braga W 2+ goals
59%
Sporting Braga W 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Marítimo W (draw refunded)
33%
Sporting Braga W (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marítimo W at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.95 · 43 matches

Sporting Braga W away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marítimo W attack 1.47 + Sporting Braga W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sporting Braga W attack 2.07 + Marítimo W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Marítimo W scores more
26%
level
22%
Sporting Braga W scores more
52%

Sporting Braga W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sporting Braga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marítimo W vs Sporting Braga W

Marítimo W beat Sporting Braga W 4-1 in 1a Divisão - Women on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio dos Barreiros in Ilha da Madeira.