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Marítimo vs Petare FC — Segunda División 2018

Marítimo
Marítimo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Petare FC
Petare FC
9/15/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 8Cancha de Camurí Chico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Marítimo53%
×Draw28%
Petare FC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marítimo
1.40
Petare FC
0.72

Marítimo creates 94% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 102 away

creates per match

Marítimo
1.71
Petare FC
0.84

allows per match

Marítimo
0.61
Petare FC
1.08

finishing

Marítimo+0.00on par
Petare FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marítimo ↓

Petare FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Marítimo or draw
81%
Marítimo or Petare FC
72%
Draw or Petare FC
47%

Winning margin

Marítimo wins by 2+
26%
Petare FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Marítimo 1+ goals
75%
Marítimo 2+ goals
41%
Marítimo 3+ goals
17%
Petare FC 1+ goals
51%
Petare FC 2+ goals
16%
Petare FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Marítimo (draw refunded)
73%
Petare FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marítimo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.61 · 56 matches

Petare FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.08 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marítimo attack 1.71 + Petare FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.40

Petare FC attack 0.84 + Marítimo defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Marítimo scores more
53%
level
28%
Petare FC scores more
19%

Marítimo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Marítimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marítimo vs Petare FC

Petare FC beat Marítimo 2-1 in Segunda División on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Cancha de Camurí Chico in Caraballeda.