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Maritimo vs Feirense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Maritimo
Maritimo
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Feirense
Feirense
João Silva 62', 10'
Luís Machado 38'
11/25/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio dos Barreiros (Funchal (Ilha da Madeira))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maritimo32%
×Draw25%
Feirense44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritimo
1.31
Feirense
1.59

Feirense creates 21% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Maritimo
1.50
Feirense
1.44

allows per match

Maritimo
1.75
Feirense
1.11

finishing

Maritimo+0.00on par
Feirense+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritimo ↓

Feirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Maritimo or draw
56%
Maritimo or Feirense
75%
Draw or Feirense
68%

Winning margin

Maritimo wins by 2+
14%
Feirense wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Maritimo 1+ goals
73%
Maritimo 2+ goals
38%
Maritimo 3+ goals
14%
Feirense 1+ goals
80%
Feirense 2+ goals
47%
Feirense 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Maritimo (draw refunded)
42%
Feirense (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritimo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Feirense away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritimo attack 1.50 + Feirense defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Feirense attack 1.44 + Maritimo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Maritimo scores more
32%
level
25%
Feirense scores more
44%

Feirense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Feirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
João Silva
38'
Luís Machado
62'
João Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maritimo vs Feirense

Feirense beat Maritimo 3-0 in Taça de Portugal on November 25, 2018.

Goals: João Silva (10', 62'), Luís Machado (38').

The match was played at Estádio dos Barreiros (Funchal (Ilha da Madeira)).