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Marítimo vs Atlético La Cruz — Segunda División 2018

Marítimo
Marítimo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético La Cruz
Atlético La Cruz
4/26/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 8Cancha de Camurí Chico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Marítimo52%
×Draw26%
Atlético La Cruz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marítimo
1.48
Atlético La Cruz
0.84

Marítimo creates 76% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 50 away

creates per match

Marítimo
1.71
Atlético La Cruz
1.08

allows per match

Marítimo
0.61
Atlético La Cruz
1.26

finishing

Marítimo+0.00on par
Atlético La Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marítimo ↓

Atlético La Cruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Marítimo or draw
79%
Marítimo or Atlético La Cruz
74%
Draw or Atlético La Cruz
48%

Winning margin

Marítimo wins by 2+
27%
Atlético La Cruz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Marítimo 1+ goals
77%
Marítimo 2+ goals
43%
Marítimo 3+ goals
19%
Atlético La Cruz 1+ goals
57%
Atlético La Cruz 2+ goals
21%
Atlético La Cruz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Marítimo (draw refunded)
71%
Atlético La Cruz (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marítimo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.61 · 56 matches

Atlético La Cruz away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marítimo attack 1.71 + Atlético La Cruz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atlético La Cruz attack 1.08 + Marítimo defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Marítimo scores more
52%
level
26%
Atlético La Cruz scores more
21%

Marítimo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Marítimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marítimo vs Atlético La Cruz

Marítimo beat Atlético La Cruz 1-0 in Segunda División on April 26, 2023.

The match was played at Cancha de Camurí Chico in Caraballeda.