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Marino vs Mensajero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Marino
Marino
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mensajero
Mensajero
11/22/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 3Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Marino48%
×Draw27%
Mensajero26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marino
1.45
Mensajero
0.99

Marino creates 46% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 76 away

creates per match

Marino
1.53
Mensajero
1.08

allows per match

Marino
0.90
Mensajero
1.36

finishing

Marino+0.00on par
Mensajero+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino ↓

Mensajero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Marino or draw
74%
Marino or Mensajero
73%
Draw or Mensajero
52%

Winning margin

Marino wins by 2+
24%
Mensajero wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Marino 1+ goals
77%
Marino 2+ goals
42%
Marino 3+ goals
18%
Mensajero 1+ goals
63%
Mensajero 2+ goals
26%
Mensajero 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Marino (draw refunded)
65%
Mensajero (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.90 · 96 matches

Mensajero away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino attack 1.53 + Mensajero defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.45

Mensajero attack 1.08 + Marino defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Marino scores more
48%
level
27%
Mensajero scores more
26%

Marino at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Marino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marino vs Mensajero

Marino beat Mensajero 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 22, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso in Tenerife.