Marino 2–7 Lanzarote: Result & Stats

Marino

2 – 7

HT: 1 – 4

Lanzarote

12/3/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 13Campo Municipal de Fútbol Anexo Antonio Domínguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Marino45%

×Draw27%

Lanzarote28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarinoExpected goals in this matchLanzarote

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.05

Marino

1.41

Lanzarote

1.05

Marino creates 34% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 108 away

1.53

creates per match

1.20

0.90

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Marino

1.53

Lanzarote

1.20

allows per match

Marino

0.90

Lanzarote

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marino+0.00on par

Lanzarote+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino ↓

Lanzarote →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Marino or draw

72%

Marino or Lanzarote

73%

Draw or Lanzarote

55%

Winning margin

Marino wins by 2+

22%

Lanzarote wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Marino 1+ goals

76%

Marino 2+ goals

41%

Marino 3+ goals

17%

Lanzarote 1+ goals

65%

Lanzarote 2+ goals

28%

Lanzarote 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Marino (draw refunded)

62%

Lanzarote (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Marino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.90 · 96 matches

Lanzarote away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.28 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Marino attack 1.53 + Lanzarote defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.41

Lanzarote attack 1.20 + Marino defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Marino scores more

45%

level

27%

Lanzarote scores more

28%

Marino at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Marino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff