Marino de Luanco 0–1 Real Valladolid II

Marino de Luanco

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Valladolid II

11/25/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Estadi Municipal de Miramar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Marino de Luanco46%

×Draw28%

Real Valladolid II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marino de LuancoExpected goals in this matchReal Valladolid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.94

Marino de Luanco

1.33

Real Valladolid II

0.94

Marino de Luanco creates 41% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 31 away

1.04

creates per match

1.16

0.73

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Marino de Luanco

1.04

Real Valladolid II

1.16

allows per match

Marino de Luanco

0.73

Real Valladolid II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino de Luanco ↓

Real Valladolid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Marino de Luanco or draw

74%

Marino de Luanco or Real Valladolid II

72%

Draw or Real Valladolid II

54%

Winning margin

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+

21%

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals

74%

Marino de Luanco 2+ goals

38%

Marino de Luanco 3+ goals

15%

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

61%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

24%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)

63%

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino de Luanco at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

Real Valladolid II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino de Luanco attack 1.04 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Real Valladolid II attack 1.16 + Marino de Luanco defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Marino de Luanco scores more

46%

level

28%

Real Valladolid II scores more

26%

Marino de Luanco at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Marino de Luanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff