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Marines vs Amagaju — National Soccer League 2019

Marines
Marines
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Amagaju
Amagaju
11/4/2023National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 10Stade Umuganda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Marines44%
×Draw28%
Amagaju28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marines
1.32
Amagaju
0.98

Marines creates 35% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 48 away

creates per match

Marines
1.40
Amagaju
0.83

allows per match

Marines
1.13
Amagaju
1.25

finishing

Marines+0.00on par
Amagaju+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marines ↓

Amagaju →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Marines or draw
72%
Marines or Amagaju
72%
Draw or Amagaju
56%

Winning margin

Marines wins by 2+
21%
Amagaju wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Marines 1+ goals
73%
Marines 2+ goals
38%
Marines 3+ goals
15%
Amagaju 1+ goals
62%
Amagaju 2+ goals
26%
Amagaju 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Marines (draw refunded)
62%
Amagaju (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marines at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Amagaju away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marines attack 1.40 + Amagaju defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Amagaju attack 0.83 + Marines defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Marines scores more
44%
level
28%
Amagaju scores more
28%

Marines at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Marines will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marines vs Amagaju

Marines beat Amagaju 1-0 in National Soccer League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Umuganda in Gisenyi.