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Marineros de Puntarenas vs Puntarenas FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Marineros de Puntarenas
Marineros de Puntarenas
FT
0 – 1
Puntarenas FC
Puntarenas FC
1/30/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 3Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Marineros de Puntarenas38%
×Draw26%
Puntarenas FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marineros de Puntarenas
1.35
Puntarenas FC
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 66 away

creates per match

Marineros de Puntarenas
1.62
Puntarenas FC
1.33

allows per match

Marineros de Puntarenas
1.27
Puntarenas FC
1.08

finishing

Marineros de Puntarenas+0.00on par
Puntarenas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marineros de Puntarenas ↓

Puntarenas FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Marineros de Puntarenas or draw
64%
Marineros de Puntarenas or Puntarenas FC
74%
Draw or Puntarenas FC
62%

Winning margin

Marineros de Puntarenas wins by 2+
17%
Puntarenas FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Marineros de Puntarenas 1+ goals
74%
Marineros de Puntarenas 2+ goals
39%
Marineros de Puntarenas 3+ goals
15%
Puntarenas FC 1+ goals
73%
Puntarenas FC 2+ goals
37%
Puntarenas FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Marineros de Puntarenas (draw refunded)
52%
Puntarenas FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marineros de Puntarenas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

Puntarenas FC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marineros de Puntarenas attack 1.62 + Puntarenas FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.35

Puntarenas FC attack 1.33 + Marineros de Puntarenas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Marineros de Puntarenas scores more
38%
level
26%
Puntarenas FC scores more
36%

Marineros de Puntarenas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Marineros de Puntarenas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marineros de Puntarenas vs Puntarenas FC

Puntarenas FC beat Marineros de Puntarenas 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on January 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy in Puntarenas.