Mariehamn score first in only 17% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 117+ matches
Mariehamn35%SJK39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 117 home / 121 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Mariehamn ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Mariehamn at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.60 · 117 matches
SJK away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.40 · 121 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Mariehamn attack 1.24 + SJK defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32
SJK attack 1.21 + Mariehamn defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.41
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
SJK at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "SJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- SJK score first in only 25% of matches
- Both teams score in 85% of SJK’s matches
- 75% of SJK’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- Mariehamn fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.3 expected)
- SJK have won 8 of the last 10 meetings
- 42% of SJK’s goals come after the 75th minute
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Similar stylesHead-to-head
10 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Mariehamn host SJK on Saturday, 15 August 2026 at 16:00. The match is part of the Veikkausliiga 2018/2019 season.
Mariehamn face SJK (Veikkausliiga)
Veikkausliiga returns with Mariehamn hosting SJK. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.