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Mariehamn vs KuPS — Suomen Cup 2018

Mariehamn
Mariehamn
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
KuPS
KuPS
7/5/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Quarter-finalsWiklöf Holding Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Mariehamn30%
×Draw26%
KuPS44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mariehamn
1.19
KuPS
1.49

KuPS creates 25% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 22 away

creates per match

Mariehamn
1.42
KuPS
1.73

allows per match

Mariehamn
1.25
KuPS
0.95

finishing

Mariehamn+0.00on par
KuPS+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariehamn ↓

KuPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mariehamn or draw
56%
Mariehamn or KuPS
74%
Draw or KuPS
70%

Winning margin

Mariehamn wins by 2+
12%
KuPS wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Mariehamn 1+ goals
70%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
33%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
12%
KuPS 1+ goals
77%
KuPS 2+ goals
44%
KuPS 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mariehamn (draw refunded)
41%
KuPS (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariehamn at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

KuPS away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariehamn attack 1.42 + KuPS defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.19

KuPS attack 1.73 + Mariehamn defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mariehamn scores more
30%
level
26%
KuPS scores more
44%

KuPS at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mariehamn vs KuPS

Mariehamn and KuPS drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on July 5, 2023.

The match was played at Wiklöf Holding Arena in Åland.