Mariehamn 0–2 Ilves: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Mariehamn

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Ilves

T. Miettunen 44'

Matias Ojala 33'

6/15/2019

Suomen Cup · FinalWiklöf Holding Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Mariehamn27%

×Draw23%

Ilves50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MariehamnExpected goals in this matchIlves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.76

Mariehamn

1.24

Ilves

1.76

Ilves creates 42% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

1.42

creates per match

2.28

1.25

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Mariehamn

1.42

Ilves

2.28

allows per match

Mariehamn

1.25

Ilves

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mariehamn+0.00on par

Ilves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariehamn ↓

Ilves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Mariehamn or draw

50%

Mariehamn or Ilves

77%

Draw or Ilves

73%

Winning margin

Mariehamn wins by 2+

11%

Ilves wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Mariehamn 1+ goals

71%

Mariehamn 2+ goals

35%

Mariehamn 3+ goals

13%

Ilves 1+ goals

83%

Ilves 2+ goals

52%

Ilves 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Mariehamn (draw refunded)

35%

Ilves (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariehamn at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Ilves away — creates 2.28, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariehamn attack 1.42 + Ilves defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.24

Ilves attack 2.28 + Mariehamn defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mariehamn scores more

27%

level

23%

Ilves scores more

50%

Ilves at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

Matias Ojala

44'

T. Miettunen

59'

S. Silverholt← K. Isaksson

67'

R. Sjöroos← H. Lönn

70'

E. Tendeng← T. Fofana

77'

I. Järvinen← Y. Moussa

86'

D. Tomas← Matias Ojala

89'

A. Ekhalie← A. Mäenpää

Mariehamn

Ilves

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Lundberg

59'▲S. Silverholt←▼K. Isaksson

67'▲R. Sjöroos←▼H. Lönn

89'▲A. Ekhalie←▼A. Mäenpää

Mariehamn substitutes

SilverholtSjöroosEkhalieKarlströmJärvenpääNordqvistHamza

Manager: J. Wiss

70'▲E. Tendeng←▼T. Fofana

77'▲I. Järvinen←▼Y. Moussa

86'▲D. Tomas←▼Matias Ojala

Ilves substitutes

TendengJärvinenTomasLuukkanenAfumKaziSiira