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Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki — Suomen Cup 2018

Mariehamn
Mariehamn
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
3/3/2019Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 1Eckeröhallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Mariehamn23%
×Draw21%
HIFK Helsinki55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mariehamn
1.29
HIFK Helsinki
2.08

HIFK Helsinki creates 61% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 23 away

creates per match

Mariehamn
1.42
HIFK Helsinki
2.91

allows per match

Mariehamn
1.25
HIFK Helsinki
1.17

finishing

Mariehamn+0.00on par
HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariehamn ↓

HIFK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Mariehamn or draw
45%
Mariehamn or HIFK Helsinki
79%
Draw or HIFK Helsinki
77%

Winning margin

Mariehamn wins by 2+
10%
HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Mariehamn 1+ goals
72%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
37%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
14%
HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
87%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
61%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Mariehamn (draw refunded)
30%
HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariehamn at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

HIFK Helsinki away — creates 2.91, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariehamn attack 1.42 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

HIFK Helsinki attack 2.91 + Mariehamn defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mariehamn scores more
23%
level
21%
HIFK Helsinki scores more
55%

HIFK Helsinki at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "HIFK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Mariehamn 3–0 HIFK Helsinki

Mariehamn beat HIFK Helsinki 3-0 in Suomen Cup on March 3, 2019.

The match was played at Eckeröhallen in Åland.