Mariehamn 2–0 Haka: Result & Stats | Veikkausliiga

Mariehamn

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Haka

Dé 90', 3'

8/6/2022

Veikkausliiga · Round 17Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Mariehamn37%

×Draw25%

Haka38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MariehamnExpected goals in this matchHaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.43

Mariehamn

1.41

Haka

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 81 away

1.24

creates per match

1.25

1.60

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Mariehamn

1.24

Haka

1.25

allows per match

Mariehamn

1.60

Haka

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mariehamn+0.00on par

Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariehamn ↓

Haka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mariehamn or draw

62%

Mariehamn or Haka

75%

Draw or Haka

63%

Winning margin

Mariehamn wins by 2+

17%

Haka wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Mariehamn 1+ goals

76%

Mariehamn 2+ goals

41%

Mariehamn 3+ goals

17%

Haka 1+ goals

76%

Haka 2+ goals

42%

Haka 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Mariehamn (draw refunded)

49%

Haka (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariehamn at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.60 · 117 matches

Haka away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.58 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariehamn attack 1.24 + Haka defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Haka attack 1.25 + Mariehamn defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mariehamn scores more

37%

level

25%

Haka scores more

38%

Haka at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Dé

24'

J. Arthur← S. Ojala

43'

Janne-Pekka Laine

45'

J. Latonen← J. Hopcutt

57'

60'

61'

63'

70'

72'

O. Whyte← S. Saarinen

72'

E. Collin← H. Malundama

75'

Alvaro Ngamba

81'

De

84'

A. Herbert← T. Purme

84'

D. Açka← E. Mastokangas

89'

Yann Fillion

90'

Dé

Possession

Shots

Statistics

MariehamnHaka

Overview

53%Possession47%

14Total Shots16

6Corners7

18Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots16

7On Target5

4Off Target7

3Blocked4

Passing

53%Possession47%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls11

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

5Offsides1